Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.
Lancet Infect Dis
; 2023 Nov 28.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38040006
ABSTRACT
The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Systematic_reviews
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Lancet Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido