Assessing the impact of center volume on the cost-effectiveness of centralizing ERCP.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: ERCP is a complex endoscopic procedure in which the center's procedure volume influences outcomes. With the increasing healthcare expenses and limited resources, promoting cost-effective care becomes essential for healthcare provision. This study performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the hypothesis that high-volume (HV) centers perform ERCP with higher quality at lower costs than low-volume (LV) centers. METHODS: A baseline case compared the current distribution of ERCPs among HV and LV centers with a hypothetical scenario in which all ERCPs are performed at HV centers. A cost-effectiveness analysis was constructed, followed by one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) using Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: In the baseline case, the ICER was -141,017€/year, due to the hypothetical scenario's lower costs and slightly higher QALYs. The model was most sensitive to changes in the transportation costs (109.34%), probability of significant adverse events (AEs) after successful ERCP at LV centers (42.12%), utility after ERCP with significant AEs (30.10%), and probability of significant AEs after successful ERCP at HV centers (23.53%) but only transportation cost above 3,407€ changed the study outcome. The current ERCP distribution would only be cost-effective if LV centers achieved higher success (≥ 92.4% vs. 89.3%) with much lower significant AEs (≤ 0.5% vs 6.7%). The study's main findings remained unchanged while combining all model parameters in the PSA. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that HV centers have high-performance rates at lower costs, raising the need to consider the principle of centralization of ERCPs into HV centers to improve the quality of care.