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Final epidemic size of a two-community SIR model with asymmetric coupling.
Han, Zhimin; Wang, Yi; Gao, Shan; Sun, Guiquan; Wang, Hao.
Afiliación
  • Han Z; School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
  • Wang Y; School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
  • Gao S; Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
  • Sun G; Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
  • Wang H; School of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, Shanxi, China.
J Math Biol ; 88(5): 51, 2024 Mar 29.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38551684
ABSTRACT
Communities are commonly not isolated but interact asymmetrically with each other, allowing the propagation of infectious diseases within the same community and between different communities. To reveal the impact of asymmetrical interactions and contact heterogeneity on disease transmission, we formulate a two-community SIR epidemic model, in which each community has its contact structure while communication between communities occurs through temporary commuters. We derive an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number R 0 , give an implicit equation for the final epidemic size z, and analyze the relationship between them. Unlike the typical positive correlation between R 0 and z in the classic SIR model, we find a negatively correlated relationship between counterparts of our model deviating from homogeneous populations. Moreover, we investigate the impact of asymmetric coupling mechanisms on R 0 . The results suggest that, in scenarios with restricted movement of susceptible individuals within a community, R 0 does not follow a simple monotonous relationship, indicating that an unbending decrease in the movement of susceptible individuals may increase R 0 . We further demonstrate that network contacts within communities have a greater effect on R 0 than casual contacts between communities. Finally, we develop an epidemic model without restriction on the movement of susceptible individuals, and the numerical simulations suggest that the increase in human flow between communities leads to a larger R 0 .
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Enfermedades Transmisibles / Epidemias Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: J Math Biol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Alemania

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Enfermedades Transmisibles / Epidemias Límite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: J Math Biol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: Alemania