Accurate Prediction Equations for Ventilatory Thresholds in Cardiometabolic Disease When Gas Exchange Analysis is Unavailable: Development and Validation.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To develop and validate equations predicting heart rate (HR) at the first and second ventilatory thresholds (VTs) and an optimized range-adjusted prescription for patients with cardiometabolic disease (CMD). To compare their performance against guideline-based exercise intensity domains. METHODS: Cross-sectional study involving 2,868 CMD patients from nine countries. HR predictive equations for first and second VTs (VT1, VT2) were developed using multivariate linear regression with 975 cycle-ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPET). 'Adjusted' percentages of peak HR (%HRpeak) and HR reserve (%HRR) were derived from this group. External validation with 1,893 CPET (cycle-ergometer or treadmill) assessed accuracy, agreement, and reliability against guideline-based %HRpeak and %HRR prescriptions using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Bland-Altman analyses, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: HR predictive equations (R² 0.77 VT1, 0.88 VT2) and adjusted %HRR (VT1 42%, VT2 77%) were developed. External validation demonstrated superiority over widely used guideline-directed intensity domains for %HRpeak and %HRR. The new methods showed consistent performance across both VTs with lower MAPE (VT1 7.1%, VT2 5.0%), 'good' ICC for VT1 (0.81, 0.82) and 'excellent' for VT2 (0.93). Guideline-based exercise intensity domains had higher MAPE (VT1 6.8%-21.3%, VT2 5.1%-16.7%), 'poor' to 'good' ICC for VT1, and 'poor' to 'excellent' for VT2, indicating inconsistencies related to specific VTs across guidelines. CONCLUSION: Developed and validated HR predictive equations and the optimized %HRR for CMD patients for determining VT1 and VT2 outperformed the guideline-based exercise intensity domains and showed ergometer interchangeability. They offer a superior alternative for prescribing moderate intensity exercise when CPET is unavailable.

Equations to predict heart rate at ventilatory thresholds were developed and externally validated, offering a new perspective when a cardiopulmonary exercise test is unavailable to accurately determine the aerobic exercise intensity domains. Additionally, an adjusted range for exercise intensity prescription based on the percentage of heart rate reserve (%HRR) was provided, utilizing a large sample from eight countries. The proposed equations and the range-adjusted %HRR significantly outperformed the guideline-directed methods for determining exercise intensity, exhibiting higher accuracy, agreement, and reliability. Exercise intensity prescription based on the percentage of heart rate peak showed higher errors, raising concerns about its clinical applicability. Our study may enhance the efficacy of exercise training and physical activity advice when gas exchange analysis is unavailable, potentially leading to improved clinical outcomes, even in low-resource settings. Employing these approaches in research could facilitate more tailored and consistent interventions, introducing a contemporary perspective for studies comparing exercise intensity prescriptions.