Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability.
Nat Commun
; 15(1): 4379, 2024 May 23.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38782888
ABSTRACT
The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.
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1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos
Pais de publicación:
Reino Unido