Prognostic and predictive value of examined lymph node count in stage III colorectal cancer: a population based study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The role of tumor-draining lymph nodes in the progression of malignant tumors, including stage III colorectal cancer (CRC), is critical. However, the prognostic and predictive value of the number of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) are not fully understood. METHODS: This population-based study retrospectively analyzed data from 106,843 patients with stage III CRC who underwent surgical treatment and registered in three databases from 2004 to 2021. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cohort was divided using into training and test cohorts at a ratio of 32. We employed restricted cubic spline (RCS) curves to explore nonlinear relationships between overall survival (OS) and ELNs counts and performed Cox regression to evaluate hazard ratios across different ELNs count subtypes. Additional validation cohorts were utilized from the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) under the same criteria. Outcomes measured included OS, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and progression-free survival (PFS). Molecular analyses involved differential gene expression using the "limma" package and immune profiling through CIBERSORT. Tissue microarray slides and multiplex immunofluorescence (MIF) were used to assess protein expression and immune cell infiltration. RESULTS: Patients with higher ELNs counts (≥ 17) demonstrated significantly better long-term survival outcomes across all cohorts. Enhanced OS, CSS, and PFS were notably evident in the LN-ELN group compared to those with fewer ELNs. Cox regression models underscored the prognostic value of higher ELNs counts across different patient subgroups by age, sex, tumor differentiation, and TNM stages. Subtype analysis based on ELNs count revealed a marked survival benefit in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in the medium and large ELNs counts (≥ 12), whereas those with fewer ELNs showed negligible benefits. RNA sequencing and MIF indicated elevated immune activation in the LN-ELN group, characterized by increased CD3+, CD4+, and CD8 + T cells within the tumor microenvironment. CONCLUSIONS: The number of ELNs independently predicts survival and the immunological landscape at the tumor site in stage III CRC, underscoring its dual prognostic and predictive value.