Development and Validation of an In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Model for Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often face unknown risks during acute exacerbation of the disease (AECOPD), which could potentially result in mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in AECOPD patients. Patients and Methods: Clinical data of patients hospitalized at The Second People's Hospital of Wuhu City for AECOPD between January 2013 and December 2022 were retrospectively collected. Variables underwent selection through LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression to develop a nomogram model. The model's predictive performance was assessed using the concordance index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), with internal validation conducted using the bootstrap method. Results: A total of 1224 patients were included in this study, with 98 (8%) deaths occurring during hospitalization. LASSO regression identified 11 variables, used to construct model A. Further multivariable logistic regression was conducted to select variables with P < 0.05 to establish model B. model B was selected as the final model based on discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, encompassing variables including acute respiratory failure, lung cancer, heart rate, hemoglobin, absolute neutrophil count, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen, and serum chloride. The nomogram model achieved a concordance index of 0.858. Internal validation of the model was conducted using the bootstrap method with 500 repetitions, resulting in a concordance index of 0.851 (95% CI 0.805, 0.893). The calibration curve demonstrated a good fit, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test P-value of 0.520. Moreover, DCA findings suggested patient benefit within a threshold probability range of 0.02 to 0.73, with a maximum net benefit of 0.07. Conclusion: The model constructed in this study has good predictive performance, which helps clinical doctors identify patients at high risk of death early.