Dialysis nurse demand in Europe: an estimated prediction based on modelling.

ABSTRACT

Background: To estimate the projections of supply and demand for dialysis nurses (DNs) over 5 years in four European countries (France, Italy, Spain and the UK). Methods: This study modelled the nursing labour workforce across each jurisdiction by estimating the current nursing labour force, number of nursing graduates and the attrition rate. Results: France currently has the greatest demand for DNs (51 325 patients on dialysis), followed by Italy, the UK and Spain with 40 661, 30 301 and 28 007 patients on dialysis, respectively. The number of in-centre haemodialysis (HD) patients is expected to increase in the four countries, while the number of patients on home HD (HHD) or on peritoneal dialysis (PD) is expected to increase in the UK. Currently Italy has the greatest proportion of DNs (2.6%), followed by France (2.1%), Spain (1.7%) and the UK (1.5%). Estimation of the dialysis nursing staff growth rate over 5 years showed that the UK has the greatest estimated growth rate (6%), followed by Italy (2%), France (2%) and Spain (1%). Conclusions: Dialysis demand will increase in the coming years, which may exacerbate the DN shortage. Additionally, competencies and training requirements of DNs should be precisely defined. Finally, implementing and facilitating PD and HHD strategies would be helpful for patients, healthcare professionals and healthcare systems and can even help ease the DN shortage.