The effect of provincial policies on seismic disaster mitigation in China: An empirical study.

ABSTRACT

With the development of earthquake disaster reduction efforts in China, the content of earthquake disaster reduction policies has become increasingly enriched and improved. Particularly, multiple provincial governments have proposed earthquake disaster reduction planning policies. It is important to explore whether these policies can affect disaster mitigation. Therefore, this paper summarizes the earthquake disaster reduction plans and factors influencing seismic resilience. Panel data from 24 provinces between 2012 and 2021 were collected, and a difference-in-differences approach was used to construct an econometric model to evaluate the policy effects and analyze the enhancement of seismic resilience. The results show that the implementation of earthquake disaster reduction policies has a positive impact on earthquake monitoring, evacuation, and emergency relief capabilities, and the estimated policy effects are statistically significant. Moreover, a series of tests were conducted. The conclusions are as follows (1) Earthquake disaster reduction policies have a positive impact on the improvement of seismic resilience in provinces. (2) Provinces with a higher number of earthquakes experience more significant effects from earthquake disaster reduction policies. (3) Provinces with higher seismic peak ground acceleration values exhibit more pronounced improvements in seismic resilience.