Assessment of COVID-19 risk factors of early and long-term mortality with prediction models of clinical and laboratory variables.
BMC Infect Dis
; 24(1): 685, 2024 Jul 09.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38982355
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may lead to serious complications and increased mortality. The outcomes of patients who survive the early disease period are burdened with persistent long-term symptoms and increased long-term morbidity and mortality. The aim of our study was to determine which baseline parameters may provide the best prediction of early and long-term outcomes.METHODS:
The study group comprised 141 patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Demographic data, clinical data and laboratory parameters were collected. The main study endpoints were defined as in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. The associations between the baseline data and the study endpoints were evaluated. Prediction models were created.RESULTS:
The in-hospital mortality rate was 20.5% (n = 29). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors were significantly older (p = 0.001) and presented comorbidities, including diabetes (0.027) and atrial fibrillation (p = 0.006). Assessment of baseline laboratory markers and time to early death revealed negative correlations between time to early death and higher IL-6 levels (p = 0.032; Spearman rho - 0.398) and lower lymphocyte counts (p = 0.018; Pearson r -0.438). The one-year mortality rate was 35.5% (n = 50). The 1-year nonsurvivor subgroup was older (p < 0.001) and had more patients with arterial hypertension (p = 0.009), diabetes (p = 0.023), atrial fibrillation (p = 0.046) and active malignancy (p = 0.024) than did the survivor subgroup. The model composed of diabetes and atrial fibrillation and IL-6 with lymphocyte count revealed the highest value for 1-year mortality risk prediction.CONCLUSIONS:
Diabetes and atrial fibrillation, as clinical factors, and LDH, IL-6 and lymphocyte count, as laboratory determinants, are the best predictors of COVID-19 mortality risk.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Mortalidad Hospitalaria
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SARS-CoV-2
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COVID-19
Límite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Polonia