Quantifying the multiple environmental, health, and economic co-benefits from the adoption of carbon capture technology in the power sector in southern Iraq, using a recurrent neural network-based health assessment approach.

ABSTRACT

This study introduces a novel integrated quantitative modeling framework to assess the multiple environmental, health, and economic benefits from implementing carbon capture technology in the power sector of Basra province, Iraq. This province is struggling with significant environmental challenges and air pollution caused by extensive oil extraction operations. First, the developed modeling framework quantifies the captured CO2 emissions and the equivalent avoided PM2.5 emissions resulting from the use of carbon capture units in existing power plants. This is achieved through a detailed simulation of the monoethanolamine (MEA) capture process using Aspen. Second, the impact of avoided PM2.5 exposure on public health is evaluated by developing and applying a dynamic dispersion model across the districts where the power plants are located. Third, it quantifies the expected health benefits, using the health impact assessment method. This method is based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of concentration-response functions, and it utilizes a Recurrent Neural Network prediction framework based on the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) method to predict the relative risk value of six health outcomes. Finally, the economic value of avoided health burdens is estimated by employing the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) and the Cost of Illness (COI) approaches. According to the findings, implementing new carbon capture units in the selected power plants in the area will lead to a reduction of 7.697 million tons of carbon dioxide per year in the total emission of pollutants from the current power generation units in the region. The integrated assessment results demonstrate a significant reduction in PM2.5 emissions, amounting to 2299 tons per year, leading to the avoidance of 1328 premature deaths and 217 hospital admissions, resulting in annual savings of $1846 million from the avoided mortalities and morbidities cases and creation of 29,607 green jobs in Basra Province.