Comparative effectiveness of combination therapy with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir versus monotherapy with remdesivir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a target trial emulation study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir (Veklury, Gilead Sciences, Foster City, CA, USA) and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid, Pfizer, New York, NY, USA) were reported to improve the outcome of patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 symptoms. Preclinical data suggest that nirmatrelvir-ritonavir might be more effective than remdesivir alone or in combination with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for people at high risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of combining remdesivir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir compared with using each drug alone for adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: In this target trial emulation study, we used electronic health records of patients aged 18 years or older who received either combination treatment of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir or monotherapy of either drug between March 16 and Dec 31, 2022, within 5 days of hospitalisation for COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance baseline patient characteristics across the treatment groups. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting weighting was used to compare the risk of all-cause mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or ventilatory support for 90 days of follow-up between groups. FINDINGS: Between March 16 and Dec 31, 2022, 18 196 participants were identified from electronic health records and assigned to receive remdesivir (n=4232), nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n=13 656), or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir (n=308). By applying an inverse probability of treatment weighting, a weighted sample composed of 18 410 recipients of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir combination treatment, 18 178 recipients of remdesivir monotherapy, and 18 287 recipients of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy was obtained. After a median follow-up of 84 days (IQR 45-90), risk of mortality was lower in patients who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy (hazard ratio [HR] 0·18 [95% CI 0·15 to 0·20]; absolute risk reduction [ARR] -16·33% [95% CI -16·98 to -15·68]) or remdesivir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir combination therapy (HR 0·66 [95% CI 0·49 to 0·89]; ARR -6·52% [95% CI -7·29 to -5·74]) than in patients who received remdesivir monotherapy. Similar results were observed for ICU admission or ventilatory support (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy HR 0·09 [95% CI 0·07 to 0·11]; ARR -10·04% [95% CI -10·53 to -9·56]; combination therapy HR 0·68 [95% CI 0·42 to 1·12]; ARR -3·24% [95% CI -3·84 to -2·64]). Compared with combination therapy, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir monotherapy was associated with lower risk of mortality (HR 0·27 [95% CI 0·20 to 0·37]; ARR -9·81% [95% CI -10·39 to -9·24]) and ICU admission or ventilatory support (HR 0·13 [95% CI 0·08 to 0·22]; ARR -6·80% [95% CI -7·22 to -6·39]). INTERPRETATION: Our study highlighted the potential for reduced risk of mortality, ICU admission, or the need for ventilatory support in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir as a monotherapy compared with treatment regimens based on nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and remdesivir combination therapy or remdesivir monotherapy. Further randomised controlled trials are needed to support the validity of the current results. FUNDING: The Health and Medical Research Fund Commissioned Research on COVID-19. TRANSLATION For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.