Retrospective analysis of interpretable machine learning in predicting ICU thrombocytopenia in geriatric ICU patients.

ABSTRACT

We developed an interpretable machine learning algorithm that prospectively predicts the risk of thrombocytopenia in older critically ill patients during their stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), ultimately aiding clinical decision-making and improving patient care. Data from 2286 geriatric patients who underwent surgery and were admitted to the ICU of Dongyang People's Hospital between 2012 and 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Integrated algorithms were developed, and four machine-learning algorithms were used. Selected characteristics included common demographic data, biochemical indicators, and vital signs. Eight key variables were selected using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and Random Forest Algorithm. Thrombocytopenia occurred in 18.2% of postoperative geriatric patients, with a higher mortality rate. The C5.0 model showed the best performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve close to 0.85, along with unparalleled accuracy, precision, specificity, recall, and balanced accuracy scores of 0.88, 0.98, 0.89, 0.98, and 0.85, respectively. The support vector machine model excelled at predictively assessing thrombocytopenia severity, demonstrating an accuracy rate of 0.80 in the MIMIC database. Thus, our machine learning-based models have considerable potential in effectively predicting the risk and severity of postoperative thrombocytopenia in geriatric ICU patients for better clinical decision-making and patient care.