Estimated Investment Need to Increase England's Capacity to Diagnose Eligibility for an Alzheimer's Treatment to G7 Average Capacity Levels.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As disease-modifying Alzheimer's (AD) treatments are becoming available, concerns have been raised that even high-income countries lack the diagnostic capacity to accurately identify eligible patients in a timely manner. OBJECTIVES: We analyze how much NHS England would have to invest in capacity for AD specialists, biomarker testing with PET scans or CSF testing and MRI scans to reach G7 average levels and estimate the effect on wait times in the diagnostic process. DESIGN: Desk research and expert interviews for cost and capacity data. Markov model to estimate wait times. SETTING: NHS England. MEASUREMENTS AD specialists, and PET and MRI scanners per capita in G7 countries and wait times in England under different investment scenarios. RESULTS: England has the lowest number of PET and MRI scanners and the second-lowest of AD specialists per capita among the G7 countries. An investment of GBP 14 billion over ten years would be needed to reach G7 average levels, of which 31%, 22%, 10%, 37% would be devoted to capacity for memory assessment services, PET scanning, CSF analysis, and MRI scanning, respectively. This investment would reduce estimated average wait times by around 87% between 2023 and 2032. CONCLUSIONS: The NHS England has large gaps in diagnostic capacity for AD. Without substantial investments, AD patients in England would experience substantial wait times and avoidable disease progression.