[Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Reserves in Shaanxi Province Under Different Scenarios in the Future].

ABSTRACT

To understand the land use development trends in Shaanxi Province under different scenarios and effectively assess the spatiotemporal evolution of terrestrial ecological carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province under land use changes, the study used Markov-FLUS and InVEST models to analyze the impact of land use changes in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020. The impact of carbon storage changes and the spatiotemporal changes in land use structure, carbon storage, and carbon density under three different scenarios were simulated and assessed in Shaanxi Province in 2025 and 2030. The results showed： ① The ROC values of various categories in the coupled Markov-FLUS model were all above 0.7, showing high accuracy and excellent classification performance. The model had a good ability to explain the land use driving factors in the study area, with high accuracy and excellent classification performance. ② From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land in Shaanxi Province increased significantly. Forest land increased significantly, and the increase in forest land area with high carbon sequestration efficiency caused the carbon storage in Shaanxi Province to increase from 1 546.95 Tg to 1 616.25 Tg. The changes in various regions in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 were different, among which the carbon storage in Yan'an was significantly increased by 18.89 Tg, whereas the carbon storage in Yulin significantly decreased by 3.29 Tg in 20 years. ③ Altitude, precipitation, and temperature became the main factors affecting the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2030. In three of the years between 2025 and 2030, under different scenarios, the carbon stocks under the ecological priority scenario were 1 632.27 Tg and 1 647.43 Tg, respectively. The carbon storage and its growth rate were significantly higher than in the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario. ④ The proportion of carbon storage increase areas under the ecological priority scenario was high. In the cultivated land protection scenario, the proportion of reduction areas was lower than that of the natural development scenario, and the distribution of carbon storage was the most balanced. At the same time, the southern and northern areas of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi need to focus on the protection of the ecological environment in future development. The research results can, to a certain extent, provide reference for promoting the construction of ecological Shaanxi and formulating carbon neutral strategic planning.