Spatial asymmetry of temporal ecological processes can shift in riverine macroinvertebrates responding to fluctuating climate conditions.

ABSTRACT

Exploring the temporal dynamics of biological communities can offer valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms driving changes in biodiversity in the context of short and long-term effects of climate fluctuations. However, an understanding of how such changes influence the spatial patterns of the temporary ecological processes that shape the pattern of community dynamics remains unexplored. This study examined the relative importance of temporary deterministic and stochastic processes (i.e., the influence of environmental filtering compared to stochastic variation within the same community) on community dynamics across watersheds in 15 rivers of the European Iberian Peninsula using 21 years of data. This study was divided into two time periods (i.e., 1997-2006 and 2007-2017). The climatic differences between the periods included decreasing levels and heightened variability of precipitation. Additionally, there were declining minimum temperatures and rising maximum temperatures, accompanied by reduced fluctuations in both minimum and maximum temperatures. Water quality and its variations also occur along an elevation pattern and changed over the time period studied. Spatial patterns of the relative importance of the ecological processes shifted between the two decades. The significance of stochastic processes increased with elevation in the earlier period, although no clear elevation pattern emerged in the later period. At the same time, the importance of deterministic processes decreased with elevation in the earlier period, and there was no clear pattern of elevation in the later period. An understanding of the patterns in community dynamics existing at various elevations over time can lay the groundwork for predicting and mitigating the impacts of short-term climate changes on biodiversity and guide appropriate conservation actions.