Predicting habitat suitability for alien macroalgae in relation to thermal niche occupancy.

ABSTRACT

Invasive species are a major threat to global diversity and can interact synergistically or antagonistically with various components of climate change. Using species distribution models (SDMs) at different spatial scales and resolutions, we determined the main variables affecting the distribution of six invasive macroalgae present on European coasts. We also studied occupation of the thermal realized niche and predicted areas potentially at risk of invasion. The climatic variables related to warming had a greater influence on distribution at large scales, while non-climatic variables related to river influence and maritime transport at regional scale. Invaders often seemed to occupy colder areas than in their native area. The combination of SDMs with thermal niche of species is a useful way of clarifying the invasion process. This approach will help in the development of preventive strategies whereby the responsible authorities can implement early detection systems and respond swiftly to the appearance of biopollutants.