Forecasting demand for long-term care services.
Health Serv Res
; 20(4): 435-60, 1985 Oct.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-3932260
ABSTRACT
This article analyzes three methods used to forecast the transition of long-term care clients through a variety of possible home and facility placements and levels of care. The test population (N = 1,653) is derived from the larger population of clients admitted in 1978 to British Columbia's newly established Long-Term Care program. The investigators have accumulated 5 years of service-generated data on moves, discharges, and deaths of these clients. Results show that the first-order Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities yields a superior forecast to state-by-state moving average growth and state-by-state regression analyses. The results of these analyses indicate that the Markov method should receive serious consideration as a tool for resource planning and allocation in long-term care.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cuidados a Largo Plazo
/
Predicción
/
Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud
/
Investigación sobre Servicios de Salud
Tipo de estudio:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Health Serv Res
Año:
1985
Tipo del documento:
Article