An assessment of the relationship between spring frost indicators and global crop yield losses.

ABSTRACT

Reports on the influences of spring frost on crop losses are not consistent, which may be because insufficient indicators of spring frost were included in the analysis. To bridge this gap, we analyzed global temperature datasets and production data for the three major crops of maize, winter wheat, and rice from 1981 to 2016. Five indicators of spring frost events temperature fluctuation (Tv), temperature difference (Td), duration (Thour), occurrence date (Tdate), and frequency (Tnum) were considered to assess their relationship with yield losses. Linear regression was employed to analyze the change trends in five indicators and random forest was utilized to investigate the relationship between yield loss and indicators of spring frost. Our findings reveal that, despite a decline in the number of spring frost events during global warming, not all the five indicators declined over time. Tv is the most important indicator for yield losses in maize and winter wheat, which shows an increasing trend in their growing regions and provides an explanation for the increasing yield losses of maize and winter wheat over time. Td is the most important indicator of rice yield losses but it shows a decreasing trend in rice-growing areas, which explains why rice yield losses from spring frosts in recent years are not significant.