Prognostic value of plasma endothelin-1 in patients with chronic heart failure.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Endothelin-1 is a potent vasoconstrictive and multifunctional peptide. Elevated concentrations have been reported in congestive heart failure. We hypothesized that the level of endothelin-1 in plasma is a prognostic marker in congestive heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of endothelin-1 were measured by radioimmunoassay in 120 congestive heart failure patients with ischaemic or non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy (mean ejection fraction 28 +/- 11%, in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I21, class II 35, class III 61, class IV 3). During a median follow-up of 361 +/- 338 days, 14 cardiac deaths occurred. In the univariate Cox model, endothelin-1 was the most powerful prognostic marker among the variables tested (P = 0.0001). A multivariate model, including plasma atrial natriuretic peptide and noradrenaline, NYHA class, age, and echocardiographic left ventricular end-diastolic diameter index was highly predictive of mortality (P = 0.00008), but only endothelin-1 remained significantly associated with outcome (P = 0.02). Patients with plasma endothelin-1 > or = 5 pg. ml-1 had a higher mortality rate than those with endothelin-1 < 5 pg. ml-1 (21% vs 4%, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that elevated endothelin-1 plasma levels are associated with a poor prognosis and routine plasma endothelin-1 determination provides important prognostic information in mild to moderate heart failure.