[Modeling of daily mortality in the Autonomous Community of Madrid (1986-1991)]. / Modelización de la mortalidad diaria en la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (1986-1991).

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe, estimate and model trends and seasonal variations in daily mortality in the Comunidad of Madrid, Spain. METHODS: Overall mortality rate, as well as gender, age and cause-specific mortality rates between january 1, 1986 and december 31, 1991 were analyzed. A cyclic pattern was detected using fast Fourier transform. Mortality was modelled using ARIMA stochastic models and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Spectral analysis detected two statistically significant periodic components (winter-summer). Winter peak was related mainly to an excess in cardiovascular diseases in women aged 65 and over, as well as with cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases in men aged 45 and over. The summer peak was related with women, aged 65 and over with cerebrovascular diseases as the cause of death. CONCLUSIONS: The two cycles detected support the hypothesis of an association between mortality and environmental factors.