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Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea from 31 January to 1 March 2020
Zian Zhuang; Shi Zhao; Qianying Lin; Peihua Cao; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang; Shu Yang; Daihai He; Li Xiao.
Afiliación
  • Zian Zhuang; Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Shi Zhao; Chinese University of Hong Kong
  • Qianying Lin; University of Michigan
  • Peihua Cao; Southern Medical University
  • Yijun Lou; Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Lin Yang; The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Shu Yang; Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
  • Daihai He; Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Li Xiao; College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China
Preprint en En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20030312
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea has caused 3736 cases and 18 deaths by 1 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95%CI 2.3-2.9) and 3.2 (95%CI 2.9-3.5), under the assumption that the exponential growth starting 31 January and 5 February, 2020, respectively. Estimates of dispersion term (k) were larger than 10 significantly, which implies few super-spreading events..
Licencia
cc_by_nc_nd
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint