Este articulo es un Preprint
Los preprints son informes de investigación preliminares que no han sido certificados por revisión por pares. No deben considerarse para guiar la práctica clínica o los comportamientos relacionados con la salud y no deben publicarse en los medios como información establecida.
Los preprints publicados en línea permiten a los autores recibir comentarios rápidamente, y toda la comunidad científica puede evaluar de forma independiente el trabajo y responder adecuadamente. Estos comentarios se publican junto con los preprints para que cualquiera pueda leer y servir como una revisión pospublicación.
Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after relaxing nonpharmaceutical interventions during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in China
Preprint
en En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-22283627
ABSTRACT
The co-existence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 38.6% and 30.2%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6% and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale and early influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the pre-pandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 56.2% and 47.3%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.
cc_no
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
09-preprints
Base de datos:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Idioma:
En
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Preprint