Study on Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.in China Based on Optimal MaxEnt Model / 中国中医药信息杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To predict the potential suitable growth areas of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.under current climate conditions in China;To provide basis for the sustainable utilization of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.resources and production planning.Methods Based on 267 screened species distribution data of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.and 8 environmental factors,the MaxEnt parameters were optimized by the R language kuenm package.The main environmental factors that affect the distribution of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.was analyzed and its potential distribution range was predicted.Results The omission rate of the optimal model operation results was 0.044 8,AICc=6 409.884 5,AUC=0.986,indicating a high accuracy of the model.Based on the contribution rate of environmental factors and the knife cut method,it was indicated that the key environmental factors affecting the current distribution of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.were mainly the average precipitation in July,the average highest temperature in February,the average precipitation in September,the coldest season precipitation,the coefficient of variation of precipitation,the standard deviation of seasonal temperature changes,and the warmest season precipitation.The simulation results showed that the total suitable area for Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.in China under current climate conditions was approximately 221.14×104 km2,concentrated in the central and central southern regions of China.The area of the high suitability zone was approximately 23.13×104 km2;the area of the suitable growth zone was approximately 73.78×104 km2;the area of low suitability zone was approximately 124.22×104 km2.Conclusion This study provides a basis and reference for the artificial cultivation planning and sustainable utilization of Epimedium brevicornu Maxim.resources.