Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>By using simple control chart, moving percentile method, exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method, the annual incidence data of influenza-like illness in Gansu province during 2014-2015 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu, and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks. Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 93.48%.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.</p>