Cost-utility analysis of pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of advanced or metastatic esophageal carcinoma / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utility of pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone in the first-line treatment of advanced or metastatic esophageal carcinoma. METHODS Cost-utility analysis of pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for advanced or metastatic esophageal carcinoma was conducted by using a three-state partitioned survival model from the perspective of health system in China. The model use d a lifetime simulation time frame with 3 weeks as a cycle. The survival data were extrapolated using KEYNOTE- 590 data；cost data were obtained from the median of 2022 public winning bid on Yaozhi network ，among which the price of pembrolizumab was obtained after discounting by a patient assistance program ；utility data were obtained from the literatures ，and a 5％ discount rate was used for both cost and utility. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also conducted to examine model robustness. RESULTS Analysis of the base case results showed that compared to chemotherapy alone ，the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）of pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy regimens were 950 528.42 yuan/QALY，107 845.39 yuan/QALY and 315 754.56 yuan/QALY for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma （ESCC），programmed deathligand- 1 combined positive score （PD-L1 CPS）≥10 and intention-to-treat population （ITT），respectively. The results of sensitivity analysis verified the robustness of the basic analysis results. CONCLUSIONS Under our healthcare system ，using a threshold of willingness-to-pay of 1-3 times our GDP per capita in 2021，pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy regimen isn ’t cost-utility compared with chemotherapy alone in the ESCC and ITT subgroups of patients ，while it is cost-utility in the PD-L 1 CPS≥10 subgroup of patients.