Exploration of risk factors and establishment of nomograms model for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy in stage Ⅰ gastric cancer / 国际外科学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To identify the risk factors associated with postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage I gastric cancer and establish nomograms model based on risk factors.Methods:In this retrospective case-control study, 161 cases with stage Ⅰ primary gastric adenocarcinoma were included who underwent gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January to December in 2020, including 129 male cases and 32 females cases, with the average age of (59.90±0.80) years. Among them, 41 cases were treated with postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (chemotherapy group), while 120 cases who did not receive postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (no chemotherapy group). Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage Ⅰ gastric cancer patients and establish the nomograms predictive model. ROC curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model.Results:Multivariate analysis revealed that primary tumor site, tumor size, T stage, N stage lymph-vascular tumor embolus or perineural invasion were the independent risk factors of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for stage Ⅰ gastric cancer( P<0.05). The ROC curve indicated that area under the curve (AUC) of the multivariate model was 0.91(95% CI 0.86-0.97). The calibration curve showed that probability predicted by nomograms was consistent with the actual situation(C-index 0.91). Conclusions:The tumor located in the proximal stomach, tumor size>2 cm, T 2, N 1, lymph-vascular tumor embolus or perineural invasion maybe be the risk factors for chemotherapy decision in stage Ⅰ gastric cancer patients. The established model has good predictive ability for postoperative chemotherapy of stage Ⅰ gastric cancer patients, which might provide reference for the selection of clinical decisions in this part of patients.