Population-wide evolution of SARS-CoV-2 immunity tracked by a ternary immunoassay

ABSTRACT

Effective public-health measures and vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 require granular knowledge of population-level immune responses. We developed a Tripartite Automated Blood Immunoassay (TRABI) to assess the IgG response against the ectodomain and the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein as well as the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2. We used TRABI for continuous seromonitoring of hospital patients and healthy blood donors (n=72222) in the canton of Zurich from December 2019 to December 2020 (pre-vaccine period). Seroprevalence peaked in May 2020 and rose again in November 2020 in both cohorts. Validations of results included antibody diffusional sizing and Western Blotting. Using an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model, we found that antibodies waned with a half-life of 75 days, whereas the cumulative incidence rose from 2.3% in June 2020 to 12.2% in mid-December 2020 in the population of the canton of Zurich. A follow-up health survey indicated that about 10% of patients infected with wildtype SARS-CoV-2 sustained some symptoms at least twelve months post COVID-19 and up to the timepoint of survey participation. Crucially, we found no evidence for a difference in long-term complications between those whose infection was symptomatic and those with asymptomatic acute infection. The cohort of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2- infected subjects represents a resource for the study of chronic and possibly unexpected sequelae.