Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds.

ABSTRACT

Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use in the design of certification, surveillance, and control strategies for paratuberculosis in cattle herds. A detailed comparison is made between the Dutch JohneSSim and the Danish PTB-Simherd, using the same context of a set of control strategies in a typical Dutch/Danish herd. The conclusion is that while the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution is warranted when interpreting and generalising the results.