Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use.
Epidemiol Infect
; 147: e196, 2019 01.
Article
de En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31364534
ABSTRACT
We present a model to optimise a vaccination campaign aiming to prevent or to curb a Zika virus outbreak. We show that the optimum vaccination strategy to reduce the number of cases by a mass vaccination campaign should start when the Aedes mosquitoes' density reaches the threshold of 1.5 mosquitoes per humans, the moment the reproduction number crosses one. The maximum time it is advisable to wait for the introduction of a vaccination campaign is when the first ZIKV case is identified, although this would not be as effective to minimise the number of infections as when the mosquitoes' density crosses the critical threshold. This suboptimum strategy, however, would still curb the outbreak. In both cases, the catch up strategy should aim to vaccinate at least 25% of the target population during a concentrated effort of 1 month immediately after identifying the threshold. This is the time taken to accumulate the herd immunity threshold of 56.5%. These calculations were done based on theoretical assumptions that vaccine implementation would be feasible within a very short time frame.
Mots clés
Texte intégral:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Base de données:
MEDLINE
Sujet principal:
Épidémies de maladies
/
Modèles statistiques
/
Transmission de maladie infectieuse
/
Aedes
/
Infection par le virus Zika
/
Vecteurs moustiques
Type d'étude:
Risk_factors_studies
Limites:
Animals
/
Humans
Langue:
En
Journal:
Epidemiol Infect
Sujet du journal:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Année:
2019
Type de document:
Article
Pays d'affiliation:
Brésil