Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests.
Ecol Lett
; 25(6): 1510-1520, 2022 Jun.
Article
de En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35546256
ABSTRACT
Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies leverage forest preservation and expansion, but rely on forests storing carbon for decades to centuries. Yet climate-driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long-term stability of forest carbon. We quantify the climate drivers that influence wildfire and climate stress-driven tree mortality, including a separate insect-driven tree mortality, for the contiguous United States for current (1984-2018) and project these future disturbance risks over the 21st century. We find that current risks are widespread and projected to increase across different emissions scenarios by a factor of >4 for fire and >1.3 for climate-stress mortality. These forest disturbance risks highlight pervasive climate-sensitive disturbance impacts on US forests and raise questions about the risk management approach taken by forest carbon offset policies. Our results provide US-wide risk maps of key climate-sensitive disturbances for improving carbon cycle modeling, conservation and climate policy.
Mots clés
Texte intégral:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Base de données:
MEDLINE
Sujet principal:
Forêts
/
Incendies
Type d'étude:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limites:
Animals
Pays/Région comme sujet:
America do norte
Langue:
En
Journal:
Ecol Lett
Année:
2022
Type de document:
Article
Pays d'affiliation:
États-Unis d'Amérique