Population-Based Correlates of Spatially Aggregated Drug-Related Arrests On and Off the U.S.-Mexico Border in California.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine drug-related arrest rates in California from 2005 to 2017 with a focus on the measurement of presumptive excess arrests across areas proximate to the U.S.-Mexico border. METHOD: Arrest data come from the Monthly Arrest and Citation Register (MACR) by the California Department of Justice. U.S. Census demographic population information, and alcohol outlet data from the California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control, were aggregated at the level of 499 Law Enforcement Reporting Areas (LERA) that contributed to the MACR report. Multivariable analyses were conducted using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson spacetime models. RESULTS: Multivariable results showed that felony and misdemeanor arrests increased with distance from the U.S.-Mexico border (felony relative rate [RR] = 1.007, 95% CI [1.003, 1.010]; misdemeanor RR = 1.013, 95% CI [1.010, 1.016]) and were greater in areas with greater outlet concentrations (felony RR = 1.008, 95% CI [1.008, 1.008]; misdemeanor RR = 1.007, 95% CI [1.007, 1.007]) and a greater percentage of bars and pubs (felony RR = 1.031, 95% CI [1.030, 1.032]; misdemeanor RR = 1.052, 95% CI [1.051, 1.053]). Areas with greater Black populations had greater felony and fewer misdemeanor arrests (felony RR = 1.078, 95% CI [1.076, 1.079]; misdemeanor RR = 0.865, 95% CI [0.864, 0.867]). Areas with greater Hispanic populations had greater misdemeanor arrests (RR = 1.008, 95% CI [1.006, 1.009]). The percentage of off-premise outlets was inversely associated with misdemeanor arrest rates (RR = 0.995, 95% CI [0.994, 0.995]). CONCLUSIONS: Although arrest rates were substantively related to the racial composition of areas across California, there was no evidence of excess drug-related arrests along border areas.