Risk factors and survival prediction of pancreatic cancer with lung metastases: A population-based study.

ABSTRACT

Background: The risk and prognosis of pancreatic cancer with lung metastasis (PCLM) are not well-defined. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk and prognostic factors for these patients, and establish predictive nomogram models. Methods: Patients diagnosed with PCLM between 2010 and 2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Independent risk factors and prognostic factors were identified using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses. Nomograms were constructed to predict the risk and survival of PCLM, and the area under the curve (AUC), C-index, and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discriminability of the established nomogram, while the decision curve analysis was used to confirm the clinical effectiveness. Results: A total of 11287 cases with complete information were included; 601 (5.3%) patients with PC had lung metastases. Multivariable logistic analysis demonstrated that primary site, histological subtype, and brain, bone, and liver metastases were independent risk factors for lung metastases. We constructed a risk prediction nomogram model for the development of lung metastases among PC patients. The c-index of the established diagnostic nomogram was 0.786 (95%CI 0.726-0.846). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that primary site, liver metastases, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), while bone metastases were independent prognostic factors for CSS. The C-indices for the OS and CSS prediction nomograms were 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.78) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.78), respectively. Based on the AUC of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA), we concluded that the risk and prognosis model of PCBM exhibits excellent performance. Conclusions: The present study identified the risk and prognostic factors of PCLM and further established nomograms, which can help clinicians effectively identify high-risk patients and predict their clinical outcomes.