Prediction of Late Dysplasia Based on Ultrasound and Plain X-Ray at 6 Months.

BACKGROUND: Developmental dysplasia of the hip represents a spectrum of deformity. Residual dysplasia at 2 years of age is associated with an increased risk for osteoarthritis and functional limitations. We compared the prognostic value of 6-month imaging modalities and aimed to identify optimal diagnostic metrics for the prediction of residual dysplasia. METHODS: After IRB approval, patients who underwent Pavlik treatment between 2009 and 2018 with 2-year follow-up were identified. Sonographs [ultrasound (US)] and radiographs (x-ray) were obtained at 6-month and 2-year-old visits. Dysplasia at 2 years was defined as an acetabular index (AI) >24 degrees. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to quantitatively compare the prognostic ability of US and x-ray-based measures at 6 months. Youden's index [(YI) (values range from 0 (poor test) to 1 (perfect test)] was used to evaluate existing cutoffs at 6 months of age (normal measurements: alpha angle (AA) ≥60 degrees, femoral head coverage (FHC) ≥50%, and AI <30 degrees) relative to newly proposed limits. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients were included, of which 28.8% of patients (95% CI: 17.3 to 40.4%) had acetabular dysplasia at 2 years. After adjusting for sex, AA [Area under the Curve (AUC): 80] and AI (AUC: 79) at 6 months of age were better tests than FHC (AUC: 0.77). Current diagnostic cutoffs for AA (YI: 0.08), AI (YI: 0.0), and FHC (YI: 0.06) at 6 months had poor ability to predict dysplasia at 2 years. A composite test of all measures based on proposed cutoffs (AA ≥73 degrees, FHC > 62% and AI ≤24 degrees) was a better predictor of dysplasia at 2 years (Youden's index (YI): 0.63) than any single metric. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of residual dysplasia remains concerning. The 6-month x-ray and US both play a role in the ongoing management of the developmental dysplasia of the hip. The prediction of dysplasia is maximized when all metrics are considered collectively. Existing parameters were not accurate; We recommend the following cutoffs: AA ≥73 degrees, FHC > 62%, and AI ≤24 degrees. These cutoffs must be validated. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level II.