Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 3822, 2023 Jun 28.
Article
de En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37380668
ABSTRACT
Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.
Texte intégral:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Base de données:
MEDLINE
Type d'étude:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Langue:
En
Journal:
Nat Commun
Sujet du journal:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Année:
2023
Type de document:
Article
Pays d'affiliation:
États-Unis d'Amérique