A nomogram for predicting the risk of treatment failure of roxadustat in peritoneal dialysis with renal anemia.

ABSTRACT

The determinants of roxadustat treatment failure in renal anemia remain elusive. This study sought to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of treatment failure of roxadustat in peritoneal dialysis (PD) with renal anemia. A retrospective cohort analysis from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2023, included 204 PD patients with renal anemia, stratified by attainment group (Hb ≥ 110 g/L, n = 103) or non-attainment (Hb < 110 g/L, n = 101) within 1 year treatment. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions were employed to ascertain predictive factors and construct the nomogram. Nomogram efficacy was evaluated via C-index, time-dependent ROC, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, with internal validation via tenfold cross-validation and 1000 bootstrap resampling iterations. The study identified PD duration, serum transferrin, cardiovascular comorbidities, and stains as significant predictors. The nomogram demonstrated moderate discrimination at 6 months (AUC 0.717) and enhanced predictive accuracy at 12 months (AUC 0.741). The predicted and actual risk probabilities were concordant, with clinical net benefits observed at six-month (8 to 53%) and twelve-month (27 to 84%) risk thresholds. This nomogram is a valuable tool for effectively predicting non-attainment risk and facilitating personalized management of renal anemia in PD patients treated with roxadustat.