The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 20(6): e1012182, 2024 Jun.
Article
de En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38865414
ABSTRACT
Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.
Texte intégral:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Base de données:
MEDLINE
Sujet principal:
Voyage
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Limites:
Humans
Pays/Région comme sujet:
Europa
Langue:
En
Journal:
PLoS Comput Biol
Sujet du journal:
BIOLOGIA
/
INFORMATICA MEDICA
Année:
2024
Type de document:
Article
Pays d'affiliation:
Finlande