MRI-Based Prediction of Clinical Improvement Following Ventricular Shunt Placement for Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus (NPH): Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Multi-Sequence Machine Learning Algorithm.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Symptoms of normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) are sometimes refractory to shunt placement, with limited ability to predict improvement for individual patients. We evaluated an MRI-based artificial intelligence method to predict post-shunt NPH symptom improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: NPH patients who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) prior to shunt placement at a single center (2014-2021) were identified. Twelve-month post-shunt improvement in modified Rankin Scale (mRS), incontinence, gait, and cognition were retrospectively abstracted from clinical documentation. 3D deep residual neural networks were built on skull stripped T2-weighted and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. Predictions based on both sequences were fused by additional network layers. Patients from 2014-2019 were used for parameter optimization, while those from 2020-2021 were used for testing. Models were validated on an external validation dataset from a second institution (n=33). RESULTS: Of 249 patients, n=201 and n=185 were included in the T2-based and FLAIR-based models according to imaging availability. The combination of T2-weighted and FLAIR sequences offered the best performance in mRS and gait improvement predictions relative to models trained on imaging acquired using only one sequence, with AUROC values of 0.7395 [0.5765-0.9024] for mRS and 0.8816 [0.8030-0.9602] for gait. For urinary incontinence and cognition, combined model performances on predicting outcomes were similar to FLAIR-only performance, with AUROC values of 0.7874 [0.6845-0.8903] and 0.7230 [0.5600-0.8859]. CONCLUSIONS: Application of a combined algorithm using both T2-weighted and FLAIR sequences offered the best image-based prediction of post-shunt symptom improvement, particularly for gait and overall function in terms of mRS. ABBREVIATIONS NPH = normal pressure hydrocephalus; iNPH = idiopathic NPH; sNPH = secondary NPH; AI = artificial intelligence; ML = machine learning; CSF = cerebrospinal fluid; AUROC = area under the receiver operating characteristic; FLAIR = fluid attenuated inversion recovery; BMI = body mass index; CCI = Charlson Comorbidity Index; SD = standard deviation; IQR = interquartile range.