The ACC/AHA 2013 pooled cohort equations compared to a Korean Risk Prediction Model for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
Atherosclerosis
; 242(1): 367-75, 2015 Sep.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26255683
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS:
To evaluate the performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations in the Korean Heart Study (KHS) population and to develop a Korean Risk Prediction Model (KRPM) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events.METHODS:
The KHS cohort included 200,010 Korean adults aged 40-79 years who were free from ASCVD at baseline. Discrimination, calibration, and recalibration of the ACC/AHA Equations in predicting 10-year ASCVD risk in the KHS cohort were evaluated. The KRPM was derived using Cox model coefficients, mean risk factor values, and mean incidences from the KHS cohort.RESULTS:
In the discriminatory analysis, the ACC/AHA Equations' White and African-American (AA) models moderately distinguished cases from non-cases, and were similar to the KRPM For men, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) were 0.727 (White model), 0.725 (AA model), and 0.741 (KRPM); for women, the corresponding AUROCs were 0.738, 0.739, and 0.745. Absolute 10-year ASCVD risk for men in the KHS cohort was overestimated by 56.5% (White model) and 74.1% (AA model), while the risk for women was underestimated by 27.9% (White model) and overestimated by 29.1% (AA model). Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Equations did not affect discriminatory ability but improved calibration substantially, especially in men in the White model. Of the three ASCVD risk prediction models, the KRPM showed best calibration.CONCLUSIONS:
The ACC/AHA Equations should not be directly applied for ASCVD risk prediction in a Korean population. The KRPM showed best predictive ability for ASCVD risk.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Decision Support Techniques
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Asian People
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Atherosclerosis
Type of study:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Evaluation_studies
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Incidence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
Atherosclerosis
Year:
2015
Document type:
Article