Predictors of Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

ABSTRACT

To investigate parameters which were related with long-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF).A total of 287 patients with AHF presenting to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University were enrolled into the registry from April 2012 to January 2015. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality within 1 year; the association between variables and prognosis was assessed after 1 year.Among the 287 patients, 17 did not continue follow-up and 47 (17.4%) passed away. Baseline NT-proBNP and sST2 concentrations were higher amongst deceased than among survivors (P < 0.001). Serum sodium concentrations of patients who died were lower (P < 0.001). In receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses, the area under the curve (AUC) values for NT-proBNP, sST2, and serum sodium to predict 1-year mortality were 0.699 (95%CI 0.639-0.755), 0.692, (95%CI 0.634-0.747), and 0.694 (95%CI 0.634-0.750), respectively. The optimal cut-off points for NT-proBNP, sST2, and serum sodium were 2137.0 ng/L, 35.711 ng/mL, and 136.6 mmol/L, respectively. In Cox regression analysis, ln-transformed NT-proBNP (HR 1.546, P = 0.039), ln-transformed sST2 (HR1.542, P = 0.049), and serum sodium (HR 0.880, P = 0.000) values reliably predicted long-term mortality after multivariable adjustment.In patients with acute heart failure, NT-proBNP, sST2 and serum sodium are potential predictors of 1-year mortality.