Unexpected slowdown in the decline of tuberculosis mortality rates in Brazil from 1997 to 2017: an ecological study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Brazil is a signatory to the World Health Organization End TB Strategy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to characterize tuberculosis (TB) deaths and TB mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1997-2017. METHODS: We performed an ecological study based on information for TB deaths between 1997 and 2017 extracted from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Data included gender, age group and geographic regions. The trends in mortality rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression analysis, which identifies years in which there is a change in slope of the time series by the Monte Carlo permutation. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2017 there were 104 172 recorded TB deaths in Brazil and the mortality rates were higher for men and the elderly. The age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 4.2 per 100 000 in 1997 to 3.0 per 100 000 in 2003 to 2.0 per 100 000 in 2017. The average percentage reduction from 1997 to 2003 was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] -7.7 to -4.7) per year, while from 2003 to 2017 it was 3.0% (95% CI -3.4 to -2.5) per year, representing a slowdown in the rate of decline. CONCLUSION: The high number of deaths and the slowdown in the decline of mortality rates from TB in Brazil maintain the disease as an important public health concern and an obstacle to reaching goals set by international commitments.