Impact of alcohol taxes on violence in Hong Kong: a population-based interrupted time series analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern with alcohol use a known risk factor. Despite alcohol taxation being an effective policy to reduce consumption; Hong Kong, contrary to most developed economies, embarked on an alcohol tax reduction and elimination policy. METHODS: To assess the impact of the alcohol tax reductions, we analysed population-based hospitalisation data for assault from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, and violent and sexual crimes recorded by the Hong Kong Police Force (2004-2018). We conducted an interrupted time series using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models on monthly rates. Breakpoints in March 2007 and March 2008 were applied separately. RESULTS: The 2007 tax cut was associated with sustained increases in violence-related hospitalisation rates for 35-49 age group (female 0.19%, p=0.007; male 0.22%, p<0.001; overall 0.16%, p=0.007); and an immediate increase of 51.3% (p=0.005) in the rate of sexual crimes reported. Results for the 35-49 age group after the 2008 tax cut were similar with sustained increases in hospitalisation rates (female 0.21%, p=0.010; male 0.23%, p<0.001; overall 0.17%, p<0.001). The 2008 tax cut was also associated with immediate increases in hospitalisation rates in children (female 33.1%, p=0.011; male 49.2%, p<0.001, overall 31.5%, p=0.007). For both tax cuts, results were insignificant in males and females for other age groups (15-34 and 50+ years). CONCLUSIONS: Both alcohol tax reductions in 2007 and 2008 were in some age groups associated with increases in violence-related hospitalisations and reports of sexual assault even in an environment of low crime.