Modelling control strategies for pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks occur sporadically in the African meningitis belt. Outbreak control guidelines and interventions are well established for meningococcal but not pneumococcal meningitis. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for assessing the potential impact of different pneumococcal control strategies. This work aimed to estimate the impact of reactive vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) had it been implemented in past African meningitis belt outbreaks and assess their efficiency relative to existing routine infant immunisation with PCV. METHODS & RESULTS: Using recent pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Ghana as case studies, we investigated the potential impact of reactive vaccination. We calculated the number needed to vaccinate to avert one case (NNV) in each outbreak setting and over all outbreaks and compared this to the NNV for existing routine infant vaccination. We extended previous analyses of reactive vaccination by considering longer-term protection in vaccinees over five years, incorporating a proxy for indirect effects. We found that implementing reactive vaccination in previous pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks could have averted up to 10-20 % of outbreak cases, with the biggest potential impact in Brong Ahafo, Ghana (2015-2016) and Goundi, Chad (2009). The NNV, and hence the value of reactive vaccination, varied greatly. 'Large' (80 + cumulative modelled cases per 100,000 population) and/or 'prolonged' (exceeding a response threshold of 10 suspected cases per 100,000 per week for four weeks or more) outbreaks had NNV estimates under 10,000. For routine infant vaccination with PCV, the estimated NNV ranged from 3,100-5,600 in Burkina Faso and 1,500-2,600 in Ghana. IMPLICATIONS This analysis provides evidence to inform the design of pneumococcal meningitis outbreak response guidelines. Countries should consider reactive vaccination in each outbreak event, together with maintaining routine infant vaccination as the primary intervention to reduce pneumococcal disease burden and outbreak risk.