Population modifiable risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in 35 sub-Saharan Africa countries: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

ABSTRACT

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest burden of neonatal mortality in the world. Identifying the most critical modifiable risk factors is imperative for reducing neonatal mortality rates. This study is the first to calculate population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors of neonatal mortality in SSA. Methods: We analysed the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys data sets from 35 SSA countries conducted between 2010 and 2022. Generalized linear latent and mixed models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). PAFs adjusted for communality were calculated using ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors. Subregional analyses were conducted to examine variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality across Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA regions. Findings: In this study, we included 255,891 live births in the five years before the survey. The highest PAFs of neonatal mortality among singleton children were attributed to delayed initiation of breastfeeding (>1 h after birth PAF = 23.88%; 95% CI 15.91, 24.86), uncleaned cooking fuel (PAF = 5.27%; 95% CI 1.41, 8.73), mother's lacking formal education (PAF = 4.34%; 95% CI 1.15, 6.31), mother's lacking tetanus vaccination (PAF = 3.54%; 95% CI 1.55, 4.92), and infrequent antenatal care (ANC) visits (PAF = 2.45; 95% CI 0.76, 3.63). Together, these five modifiable risk factors were associated with 39.49% (95% CI 21.13, 48.44) of neonatal deaths among singleton children in SSA. Our subregional analyses revealed some variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality. Notably, delayed initiation of breastfeeding consistently contributed to the highest PAFs of neonatal mortality across all four regions of SSA Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA. Interpretation: The PAF estimates in the present study indicate that a considerable proportion of neonatal deaths in SSA are preventable. We identified five modifiable risk factors that accounted for approximately 40% of neonatal deaths in SSA. The findings have policy implications. Funding: None.