Death trends based on autopsy data compared to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil
Braz. j. med. biol. res
; 54(4): e10766, 2021. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1153540
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is responsible for thousands of deaths worldwide, especially in Brazil, currently one of the leading countries in number of infections and deaths. The beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil is uncertain due to the low number of tests done in the country. The excess number of deaths can suggest the beginning of the pandemic in this context. In this article, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate possible excesses in the number of deaths processed by the São Paulo Autopsy Service according to different causes of deaths all-cause, cardiovascular, and pulmonary causes. We calculated the expected number of deaths using data from 2019 to 2020 (n=17,011), and investigated different seasonal patterns using harmonic dynamic regression with Fourier terms with residuals modeled by an ARIMA method. We did not find any abnormalities in the predicted number of deaths and the real values in the first months of 2020. We found an increase in the number of deaths only by March 20, 2020, right after the first COVID-19 confirmed case in the city of São Paulo, which occurred on March 16, 2020.
Texto completo:
Disponível
Coleções:
Bases de dados internacionais
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Coronavirus
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Braz. j. med. biol. res
Assunto da revista:
Biologia
/
Medicina
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
Brasil
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Instituto Federal de São Paulo/BR
/
Pesquisador independente/BR
/
Universidade de São Paulo/BR