Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
; 106(supl.1): 107-113, Aug. 2011. graf, tab
Article
em En
| LILACS
| ID: lil-597251
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95 percent CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95 percent CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Vigilância da População
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Malária
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Colombia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Assunto da revista:
MEDICINA TROPICAL
/
PARASITOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2011
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Colômbia
País de publicação:
Brasil