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Impact of mass vaccination campaigns on measles transmission during an outbreak in Guinea, 2017.
Linton, Natalie Marie; Keita, Mory; Moitinho de Almeida, Maria; Gil Cuesta, Julita; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Nishiura, Hiroshi; van Loenhout, Joris Adriaan Frank.
Afiliação
  • Linton NM; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels, Belgium; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
  • Keita M; World Health Organization Country Office, Conakry, Guinea.
  • Moitinho de Almeida M; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Gil Cuesta J; Luxembourg Operational Research Unit, Operational Centre Brussels, Médecins Sans Frontières, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Guha-Sapir D; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Nishiura H; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
  • van Loenhout JAF; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: joris.vanloenhout@uclouvain.be.
J Infect ; 80(3): 326-332, 2020 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31958541
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the time-dependent measles effective reproduction number (Rt) as an indicator of the impact of three outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns on measles transmission during a nationwide outbreak in Guinea.

METHODS:

Rt represents the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a partially immune population during a given time period. Measles Rt was estimated using daily incidence data for 3952 outbreak-associated measles cases in Guinea in 2017 for the time periods prior to, between, and following each of three ORV campaigns using a simple and extensible mathematical model.

RESULTS:

Rt was estimated to be above the threshold value of 1 during the initial growth period of the outbreak until the first ORV campaign began on March 13 (Rt = 1.60, 95% CI 1.55-1.67). It subsequently dropped below 1 and remained <1 through the end of the year (range 0.71-0.91), although low levels of transmission persisted.

CONCLUSIONS:

Reduction in Rt coincided with implementation of the ORV campaigns, indicating success of the campaigns at maintaining measles transmission intensity below epidemic growth levels. However, persistent measles transmission remains an issue in Guinea due to insufficient levels of herd immunity. Estimation of Rt should be further leveraged to help decision makers and field staff understand outbreak progress and the timing and type of vaccination efforts needed to halt transmission.
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Bases de dados internacionais Contexto em Saúde: Agenda de Saúde Sustentável para as Américas Tema em saúde: Objetivo 10: Doenças transmissíveis Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Estudo prognóstico Idioma: Inglês Revista: J Infect Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Artigo País de afiliação: Japão

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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Bases de dados internacionais Contexto em Saúde: Agenda de Saúde Sustentável para as Américas Tema em saúde: Objetivo 10: Doenças transmissíveis Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Estudo prognóstico Idioma: Inglês Revista: J Infect Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Artigo País de afiliação: Japão
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