Estimating waiting time for compatible blood: A Negative Binomial approach.
Transfusion
; 64(7): 1193-1197, 2024 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38804090
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
Screening blood units for compatibility constitutes a Bernoulli series. Estimating the number of units needed to be screened represents a classic waiting time problem that may be resolved using the Negative Binomial Distribution. The currently recommended method for estimating the number of units screened, n, to find a required number of compatible units, r, with a given probability, p, is n = r/p. This coincides with the mean of the Negative Binomial Distribution so that the actual number of units screened will often be underestimated by the current method.METHODS:
The cumulative distribution function of the Negative Binomial Distribution provides the probability of success (compatibility), F(n;r,p), as a function of the number of trials performed (attempted crossmatches), n, the probability of success on each trial, p, and the number of successes (compatible units) required, r. Choosing a threshold cumulative probability sufficiently high, such as F ~ 0.9, for example, will provide confidence that the projected number of units screened will be underestimated less often (~10% of the time).RESULTS:
With F ≥ 0.9, the estimated number of attempted crossmatches ranges from 1.3 to 2.3 times as many as the number calculated by the current method. As a rule of thumb approximately 1.6 times the current estimated number provides a similar estimate (n ~ 1.6âr/p).CONCLUSIONS:
Waiting time underestimation will be reduced significantly by using the Negative Binomial Distribution solution and should be accompanied by improved customer satisfaction.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Tipagem e Reações Cruzadas Sanguíneas
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Transfusion
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos
País de publicação:
EEUU
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ESTADOS UNIDOS
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ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMERICA
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EUA
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UNITED STATES
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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US
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USA