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Direct and indirect estimates of HIV-1 incidence in a high prevalence population
Am J Epidemiol ; 147(9): 834-9, May 1, 1998.
Artigo em Inglês | MedCarib | ID: med-1642
Biblioteca responsável: JM3.1
Localização: JM3.1; RA651.A1A5
ABSTRACT
While the worldwide AIDS epidemic continues to expand, directly measured incidence data are difficult to obtain. Methods to reliably estimate human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) incidence from more easily available data are particularly relevant in those parts of the world where prevalence is rising in heterosexually exposed populations. The authors set out to estimate HIV-1 incidence in a population of heterosexual sexually transmitted disease clinic attended in Trinidad who had a known high prevalence of HIV-1 subtype B. Over the period 1987-1995, HIV-1 incidence estimates from serial cross-sectional studies of HIV-1 prevalence, passive follow-up of clinic recidivists, modeling of early markers of HIV-1 infection (p24 antigen screening), and a cohort study of seronegative genital ulcer disease cases were compared. Measuring incidence density in the genital ulcer disease cases directly gave the highest estimate, 6.9 percent per annum. Screening for the detection of early HIV-1 markers yielded an incidence of 5.0 percent per annum, while estimating incidence from serial cross-sectional prevalence data and clinic recidivists gave estimates of 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent per annum, respectively. These results were found to be internally consistent. Indirect estimates of incidence based on prevalence data can give accurate surrogates of true incidence. Within limitations, even crude measures of incidence are robust enough for health planning and evaluation purposes. For planning vaccine efficacy trails, consistent conservative estimates may be used to evaluate population before targeting them to cohort studies(AU)
Assuntos
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Coleções: Bases de dados internacionais Base de dados: MedCarib Assunto principal: Infecções por HIV / HIV-1 Tipo de estudo: Estudo de incidência / Estudo observacional / Estudo de prevalência / Estudo prognóstico / Fatores de risco Limite: Feminino / Humanos / Masculino País/Região como assunto: Caribe Inglês / Trinidad e Tobago Idioma: Inglês Revista: Am J Epidemiol Ano de publicação: 1998 Tipo de documento: Artigo
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Coleções: Bases de dados internacionais Base de dados: MedCarib Assunto principal: Infecções por HIV / HIV-1 Tipo de estudo: Estudo de incidência / Estudo observacional / Estudo de prevalência / Estudo prognóstico / Fatores de risco Limite: Feminino / Humanos / Masculino País/Região como assunto: Caribe Inglês / Trinidad e Tobago Idioma: Inglês Revista: Am J Epidemiol Ano de publicação: 1998 Tipo de documento: Artigo
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