Internal Validation of a Risk Score for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery

Abstract Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery has great clinical and economic implications. Many attempts have been made to identify risk factors aiming at a better evaluation of prophylactic treatment strategies. Objective: To perform an internal validation of a risk score for POAF. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1,054 patients who underwent myocardial revascularization and/or valve surgery was included. The risk score model was developed in 448 patients, and its performance was tested in the remaining 606 patients. Variables with a significance level of 5% in the cohort were included and subjected to a multiple logistic regression model with backward selection. Performance statistics was performed using the c-statistic, the chi-square and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit, Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: Four variables were considered predictors of outcome: age (≥ 70 years), mitral valve disease, the non-use or discontinuation of beta-blockers and a positive water balance (> 1,500 mL). The ROC curve was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.79). The risk model showed a good ability according to the performance statistics - HL test x(2) = 0.93; p = 0.983 and r = 0.99 (Pearson's coefficient). There was an increase in the frequency of POAF with the increase of the score: very low risk = 0.0%; low risk = 3.9%; intermediate risk = 10.9%; and high risk = 60.0%; p < 0.0001. Conclusion: The predictive variables of POAF allowed us to construct a simplified risk score. This scoring system showed good accuracy and can be used in routine clinical practice.

Thrombocytopenia after transcatheter valve-in-valve implantation: prognostic marker or mere finding?

Abstract Objective: To analyze the behavior of platelets after transcatheter valve-in-valve implantation for the treatment of degenerated bioprosthesis and how they correlate with adverse events upon follow-up. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 28 patients who received a valve-in-valve implant, 5 in aortic, 18 in mitral and 5 in tricuspid positions. Data were compared with 74 patients submitted to conventional redo valvular replacements during the same period, and both groups' platelet curves were analyzed. Statistical analysis was conducted using the IBM SPSS Statistics(r) 20 for Windows. Results: All patients in the valve-in-valve group developed thrombocytopenia, 25% presenting mild (<150.000/µL), 54% moderate (<100.000/µL) and 21% severe (<50.000/µL) thrombocytopenia. The platelet nadir was on the 4th postoperative day for aortic ViV, 2nd for mitral and 3rd for tricuspid patients, with the majority of patients recovering regular platelet count. However, the aortic subgroup comparison between valve-in-valve and conventional surgery showed a statistically significant difference from the 7th day onwards, where valve-in-valve patients had more severe and longer lasting thrombocytopenia. This, however, did not translate into a higher postoperative risk. In our study population, postoperative thrombocytopenia did not correlate with greater occurrence of adverse outcomes and only normal preoperative platelet count could significantly predict a postoperative drop >50%. Conclusion: Although thrombocytopenia is an extremely common finding after valve-in-valve procedures, the degree of platelet count drop did not correlate with greater incidence of postoperative adverse outcomes in our study population.